Development status and Prospect Analysis of nonfer

2022-08-19
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Indonesia is located at the intersection of the Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean, across the equator, with a land area of 1.919 million square kilometers and an ocean area of 3.16 million square kilometers (excluding the Special Economic Zone). It is composed of tens of thousands of islands and is the largest archipelagic country in the world

Indonesia, which is rich in resources, has strong economic complementarity with China. Indonesia can provide China with mineral resources such as oil, natural gas, copper, aluminum, nickel and tin, and Chinese investment can also drive the local economic development of Indonesia. Due to rich mineral resources and low energy prices, many Chinese non-ferrous metal enterprises have attracted investment in Indonesia

mining industry is an important industry in Indonesia. Before the introduction of the comprehensive raw ore ban policy from the government level in 2014, the mining industry accounted for more than 10% of GDP. After 2014, the proportion of mining industry in GDP fell significantly, falling to 7.18% in 2016. After the government relaxed the raw ore export conditions in 2017, the proportion of mining industry in GDP rebounded, rising to 7.57%

mining is an important industry in Indonesia.

according to the new mineral law in 2009, the Indonesian government plans to ban the export of unprocessed metal ores and concentrates, hoping to encourage enterprises investing in the development of mineral resources to establish smelting and processing plants in Indonesia, limit more mineral processing links to Indonesia, increase the added value of ore products, and provide more jobs. On January 12, 2014, Indonesia announced a ban on the export of raw ores and stipulated that unprocessed ores should not be exported. The ban on raw ore export has a great impact on the export of bauxite and nickel ore, because before the ore export ban came into effect, Indonesia's bauxite and nickel production accounted for 19% and 16% of the global production in 2013

however, due to the implementation of the ban, the Indonesian government lost a lot of taxes and jobs. At the same time, considering that the production capacity of the equipment installed in the refinery is not enough to absorb the local ore output, the remaining ore is allowed to be sold overseas. From January 12, 2017, western India relaxed the export restrictions on some ores and semi processed products, involving copper concentrate, laterite nickel ore, bauxite, anode mud and copper telluride. It is mainly to cancel some export bans on nickel ore and bauxite, allow the export of concentrate under certain conditions, and extend the exemption from the export ban on copper concentrate and other concentrates. Mines that are allowed to export need to meet two conditions 1 According to the keynote report, first, 30% of the smelting capacity must be used for processing low-grade ores, and the rest can be used for export; Second, the smelting project must be completed within five years, and the construction progress must be checked by the Indonesian government every six months, otherwise it will be disqualified

at present, Indonesia's bauxite and nickel exports have gradually recovered. Data show that in 2017, China imported about 1.29 million tons of Indonesian bauxite. With the increase of local export quotas, some traders gradually stepped in, and the market activity increased significantly. Indonesian bauxite is expected to gradually replace some Malaysian market shares. According to SMM data, China imported about 3.81 million tons of Indonesian nickel ore in 2017, which also rebounded significantly year-on-year. Indonesia recently approved the export of nickel ore from toshida and intergra mines in January, 2018, with quotas of 1.95 million tons and 1 million tons respectively, of which toshida has no factory establishment record. As of January, 2018, Indonesia has approved a total export quota of 26.44 million tons of nickel ore, and it is expected that new quotas will be announced later

the figure shows the year-on-year growth rate of GDP in Southeast Asian countries

2 the distribution of mineral resources

as the output of bauxite, nickel and tin in Indonesia accounts for a relatively high proportion in the global market, it has a great impact, Therefore, the bauxite Market "Consumers also hope to use natural materials to make packaging materials, nickel ore market and tin ore market to briefly analyze the current situation of non-ferrous metal mineral resources in Indonesia.

bauxite Market

western India is dominated by lateritic bauxite, with an identified bauxite reserve of 1 billion tons, ranking sixth in the world, accounting for about 3.57% of the total global reserves, mainly distributed in the western region of Kalimantan island, Bonga Island, beridong Island, Riau province and other regions. Western Canada Limandan bauxite metallogenic belt is one of the most important bauxite producing areas in Southeast Asia. The deposit is large-scale, the ore quality is good, and the Al2O3 content is 45% - 55%. The Al2O3 content of bauxite in Bangjia island is 38.6% - 43%, with good resource endowment and low degree of exploration and development

before the prohibition of raw ore export, Indonesia's bauxite production accounted for as much as 19% of the total global bauxite production, and it was once the world's largest exporter of bauxite, but its reserves accounted for only 3.57% of the global reserves, and the production was much higher than the reserves. If this continues, Indonesia will face the problem of bauxite resource depletion. Therefore, the Indonesian government hopes to encourage enterprises to conduct smelting and processing locally by changing the way of simply exporting resources, so as to improve the added value of products and promote employment and economic growth on the one hand

the figure shows the proportion of Indonesia in the global bauxite output

although Indonesia's ban on bauxite export once caused panic in the aluminum market about the shortage of raw material supply, due to the sufficient inventory of Chinese enterprises before the ban on export, the replenishment of Malaysian bauxite and the active layout of bauxite production projects in Guinea, where the resource reserves account for 26.43%, Indonesia's ban on bauxite export has not had much impact on China's bauxite import supply

nickel ore market

Indonesia's identified nickel ore reserves are 4.5 million tons, ranking seventh in the world, accounting for about 5.77% of the global reserves. They are mainly distributed in the eastern part of the islands, and the ore belt ranges from Sulawesi to harma Hera, Obi, waigao islands, as well as Tanamera region (West Papua) of niaotou Peninsula in Irian Jaya

especially the connecting thread of each oil pipe

the production and reserves of nickel ore are still facing the same problem as bauxite, and the proportion of output greatly exceeds the proportion of reserves, but at present, the supply is still very sufficient, which is the growth point of nickel ore supply. From the perspective of encouraging mining enterprises to build smelting and processing plants in the local area, the Indonesian government proposed to review the enterprises that have nickel ore export quotas, and impose fines or even cancel their export quotas on those enterprises that have indicators but have no smelting capacity (including those under construction). The news once raised concerns about the accelerated export of Indonesian nickel ore, thus putting pressure on nickel prices

the figure shows the proportion of Indonesia in the global nickel mine output

according to SMM data, among the 20.49 million ton export quotas approved by the Indonesian government, only the 2.3 million ton quota of Pt cetia nugraha indotama mine has no smelting capacity under construction at present, so there is a risk that it cannot pass the government review, and the rest of the production capacity is highly likely to pass the review. In addition, the requirement standard of this review is relatively low. Meeting 10% of the progress can meet the standard, so the impact in the short term is small, but it is expected that Indonesia's nickel exports will increase significantly in 2018

tin ore market

Indonesia's identified tin ore reserves are 800000 tons, ranking second in the world, accounting for about 17.02% of the global reserves. They are mainly distributed in the Riau islands off the east coast of Sumatra, especially in the areas of Bangka Island, beridong Island, and the east coast of Sumatra. They belong to the same tin metallogenic belt as the tin mines in western Yunnan, Myanmar, Thailand, and Malaysia. The ore belt is more than 2500 kilometers long, of which the tin ore belt in Indonesia is about 750 kilometers long

the figure shows the proportion of Indonesia in the global tin production

since 2014, the export of tin has been banned in Indonesia. Indonesia, which has the second largest tin reserves, also faces the problem of declining resource grade and rising mining costs due to over exploitation. Taking pttimah, the largest tin producer in Indonesia, as an example, its tin mine output accounts for nearly 40% of Indonesia's national output. Data show that in recent years, the company's tin concentrate output has shown two major trends: first, the total output has continued to decline, systematically decreasing from 38000 tons in 2010 to 24000 tons in 2016; Second, with the depletion of resources in the landing mines, sea mines accounted for the main output, and the mining cost was forced to rise

as major tin mining areas in the world are facing the same problems of grade decline and output decline, after the sharp decline in the grade of Myanmar tin ore, whether Indonesia tin ore can be supplemented will also be one of the focuses of market attention

3 development of non-ferrous smelting and processing industry

due to the change of the mining policy of the Indonesian government, it is hoped to attract investment through the use of mineral resources, encourage enterprises to carry out smelting and processing locally, improve product added value, and drive employment and economic growth, so the development of its non-ferrous smelting and processing industry is very noteworthy

aluminum industry chain

in terms of alumina construction, China Hongqiao, Nanshan aluminum, Chinalco, Jinjiang Group and other large domestic aluminum enterprises have alumina plants in Indonesia. China Hongqiao plans to invest in the construction of an annual output of 4million tons of alumina project. At present, the first phase of the 1million tons of alumina project has been completed and put into operation. China Hongqiao plans to build a second alumina plant with a capacity of 1million tons in Indonesia by the end of 2018. Nanshan aluminum plans to invest in the 1million ton alumina project of tannanshan Industrial Park in Bintan Island, Riau Province, Indonesia. The construction period of the project is expected to be 3 years and the production period is expected to be 23 years. It hopes to take advantage of the local rich bauxite and coal resources, use the advantage of low cost to expand alumina production capacity, and improve the profitability of alumina and the reserve capacity of enterprise raw materials

in addition, the first phase of the 1million ton alumina project of samasimoka Indonesia started in October 2017, with a planned annual production capacity of 2million tons, and Nanshan aluminum accounted for 30% of the investment. In addition, Chinalco and Jinjiang Group also have alumina projects in Indonesia

in terms of electrolytic aluminum production, the electrolytic aluminum produced in Indonesia is not enough to meet its own needs, and it still needs to be imported. Asahan aluminum company is the only aluminum manufacturer in Indonesia. Its current production capacity can only meet one-third of the domestic aluminum demand. The average annual aluminum demand in Indonesia is about 800000 tons. The development goal of the company is to double the output of electrolytic aluminum to 500000 tons/year by 2020 and 1million tons/year by 2025. China Hongqiao is considering transferring the electrolytic aluminum production capacity shut down due to supply side reform to Indonesia, which has laid out upstream alumina production plants

nickel industry chain

in terms of nickel iron and stainless steel production, the rapid development of Indonesia's nickel iron and stainless steel production capacity has also changed the situation of the entire industry chain. It is expected that in the later stage, with the production of Indonesian low-cost ferronickel enterprises, China's ferronickel production capacity will be gradually squeezed out, showing an overall pattern of increase in Indonesian ferronickel production capacity and decrease in China's ferronickel production capacity

in terms of enterprises, Qingshan group has developed the fastest in the nickel iron stainless steel industry. Castle Peak Industrial Park is the fastest funded, fastest built and most fruitful foreign mining project in Indonesia since the introduction of the mining ban order. The park is planned to cover an area of more than 1300 hectares, mainly equipped with a thermal power plant with a total capacity of more than 1000 MW, a 100000 ton wharf, an airstrip and a living area with a total construction area of about 200000 square meters, with a total investment of 5billion US dollars

since the establishment of the park in July 2013, Qingshan Holdings has put into operation three projects in less than four years, and achieved production within four months of production, and achieved stable overproduction within one year. The output exceeded the original design output and operated stably. The submerged arc furnace of the Qingshan stainless steel ferronickel project in Indonesia has been powered on for trial production, completing the complete industrial chain of "nickel ore ferronickel stainless steel" in Indonesia

tin industry chain

pttimah

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