A week's market review of the hottest plastic raw

Comments on the one week market of plastic raw materials in Guangzhou (8.6

Plastic raw materials: the PVC market has rebounded, but most other varieties are still at a low level and weak to rise. On the whole, insufficient domestic demand is still the key problem that puzzles the rebound of the plastic raw materials market.

PVC: after entering August, the "PVC market rise" began to spread in the Guangzhou market The price has risen from 4900 yuan/ton to the current 5200 yuan/ton, and some businesses have quoted a high price of 5400 yuan/ton

insiders generally believe that there are several reasons why the PVC market can rebound this time: first, the PVC price has fallen for a long time, and the price has fallen too much. The price of 4500-4800 yuan/ton is generally considered to be a loss price. Therefore, there is a need for a rebound, and domestic and international manufacturers are eager to raise the PVC price to a reasonable level; Second, domestic and foreign production units began to plan for annual repair or are in the process of annual repair, which reduced the supply of PVC, and domestic manufacturers also took this opportunity to raise prices; Third, the international market price has increased significantly, among which the quotation in the Asian market has risen to more than 420 US dollars/ton, and the PVC price reported to China's main ports in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan is also between 430-440 US dollars/ton, which has increased by more than 20 US dollars per ton compared with some time ago. Moreover, because international manufacturers believe that wire and cable and other demand will increase in September, it will be a better time for the PVC market to rebound, Therefore, they are generally optimistic about the future market. The rebound of the international market has a particularly important positive impact on the Chinese market, because the biggest factor affecting the downturn of the PVC market in China in the first seven months of this year is the downturn of the international market. Once this factor changes from negative to positive, its impact is naturally different. In addition, the market in the Far East has also rebounded significantly recently, which will reduce the pressure on the Asian market from the Far East market

however, the author believes that there is a greater "artificial hype" factor in the rebound of PVC market this time. Special attention should be paid to: first, the current international market is only rising slightly, and the price is about 420 US dollars/ton, and the price of imported products is still too low; 2、 The international market is still in a situation of oversupply, and the price rise is very reluctantly; 3、 The peak consumption season in Guangdong has not yet arrived, the production of downstream industries is not booming, and the entry of end users into the market is not active. What people call market transactions tend to be active, more refers to transactions between dealers, which is a "virtual" thing; 4、 This price rise may cause some manufacturers who intend to stop production and overhaul to cancel their decisions and increase production intensity, which may lead to an increase in supply

based on the above analysis, the author believes that if the price of PVC rises too fast in a short time, such as rising to the level of more than 5500 yuan/ton, it will be very detrimental to the future market and may cause its price to fall again

high and low pressure polyethylene: with some domestic petrochemical enterprises entering or about to enter the maintenance stage, especially Beijing Yanshan Petrochemical entering the maintenance, the supply atmosphere of low-pressure polyethylene in Guangdong region tends to be tense, and it also further widens the price gap between real estate materials and other provincial materials, especially the product price gap between real estate materials and Yanshan materials is significantly expanded. Among them, the current price of high-pressure polyethylene produced in Maoming is basically about 7300 yuan/ton, but the price of Beijing Yanshan Petrochemical products 1c7a and 1f7b has been quoted at a high level of about 8400 yuan/ton, and the supply is tight; In low-pressure polyethylene, the general product price is basically between 6900-7100 yuan/ton (such as Fushun 2911, Panjin 5070, Lanhua 5011, etc.), but Yanshan products are generally quoted as high as 7900-8000 yuan/ton. Of course, this is related to the 60 day overhaul of Yanshan Petrochemical

in fact, for Guangdong region, high-pressure polyethylene or low-pressure polyethylene are only "outshining others" in the quotation of Yanshan products, and the main reason is that there has been no new goods from Yanshan recently, and the supply of resources is tight. However, there is no tension in the supply of high-pressure materials and low-pressure materials in this region. Another thing to note is that the current international market is still weak. Both high-pressure polyethylene and low-pressure polyethylene are still at the low quotation level. The high-pressure material is 620-630 US dollars. 1. The use steps of metallographic microscope/ton, while the low-pressure material is 600-610 US dollars/ton

it is understood that since the price rise of high-pressure polyethylene in the previous two weeks, although the price has not increased in the past two weeks, it has had an obvious depressing effect on the market demand, and the trading atmosphere is even lower. In the words of insiders, "there is a price but no market". According to a dealer, no business has been done in the past two weeks, and the number of end-users has decreased significantly. Some obviously said that they would like to have a look before purchasing

as we pointed out in our previous analysis, the price of high-pressure polyethylene is raised under the circumstances of the downturn in the international market, weak domestic demand and sufficient resource supply, which exactly violates the basic law of the market. Relying on "artificial forced price increase is impossible to last for a long time", many operators have this view. If the price of high-pressure polyethylene is not lowered, it is estimated that the market demand will be difficult to recover in the short term. Unless petrochemical enterprises can persist in the peak production season of film materials after September

in fact, another reason why people are not optimistic about the future market of polyethylene is that there is no obvious sign of recovery in the current international market. Foreign investors quote us $620/ton for high-pressure polyethylene and US $600/ton for low-pressure polyethylene in Guangdong. This price is basically the same as that in previous weeks, and it is also at a low level, so there is no sign of recovery for the time being

polypropylene: the demand is weak, and the price is not up or down. At present, the transaction of wire drawing materials is basically maintained at the level of about 6000 yuan/ton, but many operators say that the current trading volume is small, and the end-user demand is generally expressed in the way of "use now and buy now", and there are few large-scale transactions. Many dealers dare not take the initiative to establish inventory and worry about the price decline. Therefore, at present, the inventory pressure of petrochemical enterprises is still great, and raising prices will not be a short-term thing

in addition, at present, the polypropylene market in the international market is still very depressed. The transaction price of Juju PP from Korean sellers is $500/ton (CFR), the price of Middle East goods is lower, at $500-510/ton (CFR Hong Kong), and the price of Indian goods is lower, at $500/ton (CFR main port of China). The price of Indian wire drawing materials and injection plastics exported to Hong Kong in the early stage is 505 US dollars/ton CFR. In terms of the current international market price of polypropylene, imported products still have strong competitiveness, that is to say, the recovery of polypropylene prices in Guangzhou is not possible in the short term

abs: domestic demand 4 The buffer oil return condition is poor, extremely weak, and the transaction is cold. Many operators use "there is a price but no market" to describe the current ABS market situation. However, there is no new decline in the price this week. The quotation of 757 continues to remain at about 9200 yuan/ton, while that of domestic 750 is about 8200 yuan/ton, and that of 301 is about 9000 yuan/ton

after a period of digestion, some insiders believe that the current ABS inventory has shown a downward trend, but it has not yet reached the point of changing the fundamental situation of supply and demand. Moreover, the current ABS market in Asia is still depressed, and the market resistance is very huge. Although Christmas orders have begun to be placed, the operating rate of some downstream user manufacturers has increased slightly, and some traders are also considering appropriate positions to wait for the market to turn around, because the current market trend is not yet clear, and the market is only in the inquiry stage, market participants are only busy asking for information to judge the market trend, and have not really started to act. In early August, Korean manufacturers quoted 770 US dollars/ton (CFR China's main port) or 780 US dollars/ton (CFR Southeast Asia), and buyers were not interested. The general counter-offer was 740-750 US dollars/ton (CFR China), indicating that traders still have many concerns about the market and will not rush into the market in a large number in a short time. Therefore, ABS prices will continue to hover at a low level

polystyrene: the market continues to be in an extremely weak state, transactions are rare, and it is difficult for large-scale goods to have a market. The price of pps525 made in Guangzhou has fallen to 5600 yuan/ton, while the price of hips (660) is 6100 yuan/ton, both at recent lows, and there is no sign of recovery for the time being

the relevant industry pointed out that although the current polystyrene price has fallen repeatedly, it can not stimulate the demand desire of end users. More importantly, the domestic polystyrene inventory pressure is large, forcing manufacturers to reduce prices and promote sales. Moreover, there is no sign of recovery in the international market. The foreign quotation of ordinary grade polystyrene is only about 540 US dollars/ton, and the high impact resistant material is 560 US dollars/ton, The issuable material is 580 US dollars/ton. After making the friction coefficient stable within the strictly specified average deviation range, the sales experience of experimental machines for so many years shows that the production enterprises of experimental machines in Jinan are in a saturated state. Many operators believe that polystyrene recovery is hopeless in the short term